This year’s March Madness, one of the most anticipated betting events in the US sports calendar, is expected to see a slight drop in total betting handle. Industry analysts at H2 Gambling Capital project that roughly 169 million bets will be placed during the tournament, totaling around $2.9 billion. This represents a 1.5% decrease compared to the previous year, breaking several consecutive years of growth.
Several factors are contributing to this decline. Primarily, there have been no new states launching online sports betting since last year’s boost from North Carolina’s entry into the market. Additionally, unique factors such as the “Caitlin Clark effect” had previously boosted handle in 2024.
Despite a modest reduction in total wagers, operators might still see higher gross gambling revenue (GGR), thanks to an anticipated improvement in hold margins—from 7.5% last year to around 7.8% this year. Unlike professional sports events, March Madness typically generates fewer high-margin bets like same-game parlays due to lower player familiarity, which impacts the overall hold rate.
In terms of favorites, Duke Blue Devils are leading the men’s bracket, boosted by star recruit Cooper Flagg. On the women’s side, reigning champions South Carolina Gamecocks edge out the UConn Huskies as slight favorites.
Basketball remains crucial to the US betting landscape, accounting for around a third of total wagering activity. College basketball alone constitutes approximately 16% of basketball-related bets nationwide.
While overall betting handle growth in the US has slowed recently, future state launches such as Nebraska and Missouri later in the year could stimulate market expansion once again.